Tyche Shepherd’s 2018 SL Mainland census

Tyche Shepherd: 2018 Mainland Census

On Wednesday, January 16th, Tyche Shepherd published her 2018 Mainland Census, examining the overall state of Second Life Mainland, and it makes for interesting reading, as it offers the first “external” look at how Mainland is faring since the pricing restructure introduced in March 2018 (see Linden Lab announces SL Mainland price restructuring).

The overall view is neatly summed-up by Tyche thus:

As we’ve seen with Private Estates 2018 looks like a small revival for Mainland . Ownership is up (though Linden Home Ownership is down) and Owners are holding more land than before (Not surprising with the changes in Tier and Free Land Allowances) Larger land holders have tended to decrease their holdings but there has been a lot more active owners at the lower end. Abandoned land has significantly decreased and there has been some increase in Protected Linden land.

– Tyche Shepherd, 2018 Mainland Census

The Census covers all aspects of Mainland holdings – Linden and non-Linden. However, for this article, I’m focusing more on the Linden held elements of Mainland, specifically because of the changes made to Mainland pricing. Some of the key points of the census are:

  • Lab “ownership” of Mainland has decreased by 6.5% through 2018.
  • The total number of Mainland parcel was up on, with 132377 parcels held by 60388 unique holders (split between 49084 individual accounts and 11254 groups). This compares with 125010 parcels among 58244 holders at the end of 2017. 31056 of these parcels are directly owned by Linden Lab.
  • The mean size of parcels held by private land holders is 3366.5 Sq m, up by 82 sq m compared to January 2018.
  • Abandoned Mainland has fallen by just under 4% as a total of the available Mainland (from 22.9% of all Mainland to 19%) – the first such drop since September 2011, bringing abandoned land down to a level last seen in at the end of 2015.The cause of this is undoubtedly the Mainland pricing restructure, which lower tier rates by around 10%, doubled the amount of “free” tier to 1024 sq m and – equally importantly – substantially relaxed the rules for obtaining free land.
  • The rate at which land was abandoned also decreased in 2018, most likely again a result of the pricing restructure.
  • Total Monthly Mainland Tier, with the new tier rates applied, is estimated at US $630,786, down by 8.9% (US $61,479) on the January 2018 rate.
Abandoned Mainland fell by 4% as a percentage of the total Mainland, the first such drop since September 2011 – Tyche Shepherd’s 2018 Mainland Census

The number of occupied Linden Homes fell slightly in 2018, by 3.1, although the total number of homes remained constant. There is no direct evidence to support this being a direct result of the Mainland price restructuring; it could be part of a general sine curve of ups and downs in the popularity of Linden Homes. Unfortunately, past census reports no longer appear to be available to examine due to the SL Universe move in 2018.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the drop wasn’t in part fuelled by some people trading their 512 sq m Linden Homes to gain a full 1024 sq m of “free” tier.

The price restructuring does appear to have stimulated the “lower” end of the Mainland land market (i.e. among those holding smaller amounts of land), although overall holdings among larger land holders has, as Tyche notes, decreased slightly.

To be honest, given the Lab’s feedback on the popularity of the pricing restructure, I had been expecting a slightly larger reduction in the amount of abandoned land as a total of Mainland (possibly 6-8%). As it is, abandoned land still represents a significant amount of the Mainland product, which has – other than 2011 – tended to show a year-on-year growth since 2010. Ergo, any reduction is welcome.

Abandoned land as a percentage of Mainland, 2010-end of 2018 – Tyche Shepherd’s 2018 Mainland Census

In terms of looking ahead, 2019 presents an interesting year. On the one hand – and assuming no significant Mainland surprises are suddenly announced, there is no reason why the acquisition of abandoned land should not continue, even if at a slightly slower rate than may have been seen in 2018.

On the other, there are a couple of big “unknowns” that are to be unveiled in 2019: the alteration to Premium subscriptions, and the opening of the new Linden Homes continent (plus any plans to grow it). The latter in particular opens up a series of questions relating to Mainland size, abandoned land, and possible trends, as I noted in Second Life: state of the grid, 2018. Chief among these is the potential for abandoned land to increase in 2019 as a result of people both deserting their Linden homes in favour of the new offerings (which it turn raises questions as to what will be done with the existing Linden Home regions that might become sparsely populated), or even for other Mainland parcels to be abandoned in favour of the new Linden Homes.

Obviously, all of this also depends on how the new Linden Homes are offered, again as noted in Second Life: state of the grid, 2018 – and what incentives are offered through any revamped Premium subscriptions that are offered, and which might encourage more users to go Premium and possibly invest in Mainland.

For the full breakdown of the census and charts – all of which make for interesting reading, please refer to Tyche’s post.

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5 thoughts on “Tyche Shepherd’s 2018 SL Mainland census

  1. Interesting post, thanks! I am still getting my head around land types to be honest.

    What is the purpose of ‘Protected Linden’ land? Is this only for internal use by Linden Lab? Why do they need to reserve so much of it.

    Also, is ‘Non Linden’ another way of saying land that has been sold to users (e.g. my own mainland parcel) ??

    I have read this http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Land but I’m still unclear.

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    1. Protected land generally refers to land that cannot be fully developed – so it includes things like Mainland parks, waterways, roads, etc. Some of this may have been developed by the Linden Department of Public Works (LPDW) for the aformentioned parks. Some of it may have been minimally landscaped with shrubs and trees, etc., so the land impact can be utilised under “prim bonus” for parcels with double prim / LI allowances (e.g. Linden Homes).

      “Non-Linden” is the easiest way of referring to Mainland sold / auctioned to others, as the land could be held by an individual (i.e. like yourself) or may by held by a group of individuals under Group tier.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Thanks! I had forgotten about waterways and roads, and I didn’t know there was public use land such as parks (not heard of LPDW before). Protected still seems to account for a surprisingly large amount but if I understand your reply correctly Linden Homes are also on Protected land so that starts to feel about right.

        Thanks 🙂

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    2. From the second life wiki “Terrain or other protected land is a property of Linden Lab (for Linden-owned land) or estate owner (for private-owned land) which is maintained for use by all residents. Although it may or may not contain roads, it provides the right of passage through any region. Is usually lightly developed, assisting in the overall performance of the region, not to use the entire capacity of the land or script resources. A protected land cannot be altered or sold to residents.

      Sometimes, on private land, protected land can include mountains or other obstacles created to separate parcels. ”

      http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Protected_Land

      Liked by 1 person

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