Space Sunday: the Moon, protests and videos from space

The near and far sides of the Moon

How long does it take a planet to form – millions of years? Well, how about a moon – about the same? What if I told you the core of our Moon may have been formed in less than 6 hours? It sounds unlikely, but the idea was first proposed in 2022, and it has now got a degree of further backing.

To explain: the current broad theory is that the Moon was formed fairly shortly after Earth – around 100-150 million years after -, some 4.5 billion years ago as a result of a collision between proto-Earth and a body scientists call “Theia”, thought to be the size of Mars. The theory is that whilst Earth was dealt a glancing blow, Theia was utterly ripped apart due to a mix of the impact and Earth’s gravitational influence, resulting in a debris cloud which orbited the Earth and gradually – over further millions of years – accreted to form the Moon.

However, such a theory doesn’t account for why rocks returned to Earth by Apollo are, in isotopic terms, very similar to those of Earth’s mantle that they might well have formed here. Whilst some debris from Earth might have been cast off in a collision with Theia, by rights the lunar rocks should carry isotopic signatures largely different to those of Earth’s mantle.

In 2022, NASA funded research at Durham University’s Institute for Computational Cosmology in the UK to try to model how such a collision between proto-Earth and Theia might have resulted in the Mon’s formation. The several hundred simulations run by the ICC suggested that whilst the collision between Earth and Theia most likely gave rise to the Moon, it likely took place a lot sooner after proto-Earth had formed: around 60 million years after, rather then between 100-150 million years after.

A rendering of Theia colliding – and largely being absorbed by – Earth, and the fast-moving cloud of molten debris sent into orbit around proto-Earth, rapidly giving rise to the formation of the Moon’s core. Credit: Dr. Jacob Kegerreis

Such a time period would mean that both bodies would be much hotter than in the 100-150 million year period for the collision, and this would result in two things: much of Theia would likely remain intact and sink to Earth’s molten core and considerably more of Earth’s molten mantle would be “splashed” into the space along with the rest of Theia.

Most interestingly, the ICC study suggested that contrary to common thinking, the debris cloud would have sufficient enough velocity imparted to it that it would start out dense enough and rotating about itself fast enough to coalesce extremely rapidly and without being ripped apart by Earth’s gravity. And by rapidly, the ICC suggested the core of the Moon could have formed within a day of the collision – if not in hours.

Now the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and the University of Arizona – two of the most globally-respected space research institutes – have published a study which, whilst acknowledging some of their modelling accounts for the Moon forming over a much more extended period of at least hundreds of thousands of years, very strongly supports the ICC’s simulations for a very rapid formation of the lunar core – potentially in as little of 5 or 6 hours after Theia’s destruction.

There is just one slight wrinkle with both the SwRI and ICC studies however: while both allow for material from Earth to form a proportion of the Moon’s make-up, they don’t explain why lunar surface rocks – even allowing for early volcanism on the Moon throwing up material from deep within it which might have originated from that collision debris cloud – are so very similar to Earth’s mantle rocks. As such, there is still more to learn about how the Moon as we know it today came to be. But the idea that its core came into existence in mere hours is intriguing.

Rocket Lab Launches GAO Protest

Earlier in September, NASA awarded a US $700 million contract to Blue Origin to build the Mars Telecommunication Network (MTN) – which despite having “network” in the name, is in fact a single satellite. The spacecraft is intended to be NASA’s next generation communications relay between missions operating on and around Mars and Earth.

Blue Origin had submitted a proposal for MTN in competition with New Zealand / US Rocket Lab – and the latter has now lodged a formal protest with the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) over how the contract was awarded.

An artist’s concept of the Mars Telecommunications Network satellite. Credit: NASA

On the surface, there is much that is puzzling about the decision to go with Blue Origin:

  • Blue Origin has never actually built a satellite; Rocket Lab not only builds satellites for customers, it currently has two satellites en-route to Mars forming the NASA Escapade mission.
  • Blue Origin has no experience with communications satellites other than launching them. Rocket Lab has built (and initially operated on behalf of clients) no fewer than eight communications satellites to date.
  • Rocket Lab has a reputation for delivering satellites on-budget and on time. Blue Origin has no such reputation.
  • Rocket Lab proposed developing, building and delivering MTN by 2028; Blue Origin is targeting 2030.
  • Blue Origin proposes using their Blue Ring orbital vehicle as the MTN satellite “bus” (providing power, propulsion, etc.), although this has yet to fly beyond a demonstrator version. Rocket Lab already has a proven satellite bus in the form of Photon with, at the time of writing, three successful operational missions under its belt in addition to demonstrator flights.

The only significant advantage Blue Origin had going into the bid process was their New Glenn booster which, despite the NG-4 mishap, has successfully flown 3 times and is fully capable of delivering MTN to Mars. Rocket Lab would have to rely on their upcoming Neutron rocket, which has yet to fly.

The twin Escapade spacecraft, Blue and Gold, currently en-route to Mars were built by Rocket Lab, demonstrating the companiy’s ability to design and build low-cost, deep-space satellites – although, and ironically given the current situation, they were launched by a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket. Credit: Rocket Lab

In protesting the NASA decision to go with Blue Origin, Rocket Lab cites inconsistencies with the eligibility criteria for bids, as mandated by Congress in providing NASA with the MTN budget. However, the company has, understandably, refused to air what these inconsistencies might be in the court of public opinion.

For Blue Origin, this is very much a case of the shoe being on the other foot. In 2021, the company filed a protest with (initially) the GAO and then later in federal court, over NASA’s decision to both allow SpaceX form a late entry bid for the agency’s lunar Human Landing System (HLS) vehicle, before awarding the contract to SpaceX whilst denying a second HLS contact as agreed (a decision later reversed by Congress). Blue Origin ultimately lost both the GAO protest and the court case.

Whether Rocket Lab will go so far as federal court should GAO refuse to take action on the contract award remains to be seen. But contrary to social media sentiment against Rocket Lab, as noted above, the company does have some good standing on which to protest the decision.

Video Updates

Roman Grace Telescope

As the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (or more simply, the Roman Space Telescope or RST) continues towards its rendezvous with a halo orbit around the Sun-Earth L2 position, let’s take time to look at the two primary instruments on the observatory and how they work by means of two short videos from NASA published a few years ago.

In the first, the CGI – or Coronagraph Instrument – and its ability to reveal the light of distant exoplanets to us is explored. In short, this instrument will enable scientists will be able to see the visible light reflected by planets that are older, colder, and in closer orbits than the hot, young super-Jupiters we’ve thus far been able to detect. CGI will conduct a series of pre-planned observations for a total of three months spread across the mission’s first year-and-a-half of operations.

The Wide Field Instrument (WFI) will enable RST to capture images of deep space around 100 times larger than those captured by the Advanced Camera on the Hubble Space Telescope. The WFI uses a total of 18 4K sensors and a short focal length for its images, and will be able to image and catalogue 50 times as much sky in its 5-year primary mission as Hubble covered in its first 30 years of operation. RST will thus carry out a complete sky survey 1,000 times faster than Hubble but with the same sensitivity and infrared resolution.

BepiColumbo: 8 Years in Under 5 Minutes

In my previous Space Sunday article, I wrote about BepiColombo, the joint European Space Agency (ESA) / Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) mission to Mercury, which is now – after eight years, nine billion kilometres and nine planetary fly-bys – soon to enter orbit around Mercury.

A couple of days after that article, ESA released a short video compressing the journey down to less than 5 minutes. The film has been made from images captured by the 3 monitoring cameras (M-Cams) mounted on the Mercury Transfer Module (MTM) used to provide propulsions and power to the spacecraft throughout its journey, and which – as I reported – has now been successfully jettisoned, its job done.

The 3 M-Cams were designed to monitor elements of the Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO), the main science vehicle being transported to Mercury by MTM. As such, they have fixed fields of view, reflected in the video below. Within it, and on the left are images from M-Cam 1, monitoring the solar array; in the centre are images from M-Cam 2, monitoring the instrument booms, and on the right, M-Cam 3, monitoring the MPO’s high-gain communications antenna.

Whilst fixed in position, all three cameras also caught sight of Earth, Venus and Mercury during the mission’s fly-bys, and the video present all nine in the following order:

  • 0:38: Earth fly-by, April 10, 2020; visible as a white crescent on M-Cam 3 (right side images) as the spacecraft passed around the night side of the planet.
  • 1:11: 1st Venus fly-by, October 15, 2020; initially visible as a small disk on M-Cam 3, then moving to larger disk on M-Cam 2 (centre).
  • 1:24: 2nd Venus fly-by, August 10, 2021; briefly visible on M-Cam 1 (left) before filling M-Cam 2’s field of view and then “looping” (due to vehicle reorienting itself) and diminishing in M-Cam 3’s view.
  • 1:32: 1st Mercury fly-by, October 1, 2021; visible in M-Cam 2 and then M-Cam 3.
  • 1:48: 2nd Mercury fly-by, June 23, 2022; predominantly visible on M-Cam 2.
  • 2:15: 3rd Mercury fly-by June 19, 2023; initially visible on M-Cam 1 during the approach phase, then on M-Cam 3 as the spacecraft departs.
  • 2:41: 4th Mercury fly-by, September 4, 2024; near-continuous view of departure, M-Cam2 and M-Cam 3.
  • 2:55 and 2:58: 5th Mercury fly-by, December 1, 2024; initially and briefly visible across the bottom of M-Cam 2 during approach, then briefly visible on M-Cam 2 and 3 at long-range during departure.
  • 3:02: 6th Mercury fly-by, January 8, 2025; initially visible moving across M-Cam 1 and M-Cam 2 at a distance, then more closely in both cameras with overlapping images.

Note that the MTM camera did not have shutter, so there are occasions when white streaks appear on some images (notably M-Cam 3). Also not the changing levels of light on things like the solar array and instrument booms is the result of the spacecraft’s changing orientation relative to the Sun, while the high gain communications antenna can clearly be seen in motion on M-Cam 3’s images as it maintains a fix on Earth whilst the spacecraft periodically re-orients itself for things like engine burns and cooling.

Space Sunday: BepiColombo and Mercury + a RST Update

An infographic on the ESA / JAXA BepiColombo mission, which is now approaching it’s destination: Mercury. Credit: Airbus – click for full size

Mercury, the smallest planet in our solar system is also one of the closest to Earth – the average separation between the two being around 77 million kilometres (although obviously, this varies widely depending on which side of the Sun they are on relative to one another). When you compare that to say, the 714 million km average distance between Earth and Jupiter (with the same caveat of position relative to one another and the Sun), you’d think Mercury would be an easy place to get to.

Not so. It actually takes more energy for a spacecraft launched from Earth to reach “nearby” Mercury than it does to get to the outer solar system. There are two reasons for this. The first is that – as we all know – Mercury is racing around the Sun much faster than Earth, with a sidereal period of just under 88 terrestrial days. This means it is moving more than half as fast again as Earth: 47.6 kilometres per second compared to our 30 km/s. So to catch it, anything launched from Earth has to be going very fast- and it’s going to be accelerating all the way as it will effectively be falling “down” the Sun’s gravity well.

And therein lies the second problem: the speed required to reach Mercury + the acceleration gained under the Sun’s influence means that the spacecraft is going to be zipping along way too fast to actually slow itself in order to achieve orbit – not unless it is carrying a huge amount of propellants – so much in fact, that the mass of those propellants couple with the size of their storage requirements make such a mission a non-starter; not without a means to get around this propellant problem.

Mercury infographic. Credit: sciencenotes.org

And there just so happens that there is a means to do so – and it was actually proposed specifically to enable the very first mission ever launched to Mercury. It is called the gravity assist; using the gravity of one or more planets to either accelerate or slow a spacecraft, whilst also alter its course sufficiently enough so that it can intercept the orbit of its intended destination.

Gravity assists are commonplace today, used in many missions – both of the current mission to Jupiter – NASA’s Europa Clipper and the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Juice mission – are using multiple gravity assists to boost them to Jupiter and reduce the propellant load they would otherwise need. But it was with NASA’s Mariner 10 mission of the 1970s where the idea was first used. The mission used the gravity of Venus to both accelerate the spacecraft and swing it on to an orbit around the Sun such that it would be able to make 3 fly-bys of Mercury, the first two of which (1974 and 1975) would additionally adjust its orbit to enable the next fly-by (the last also occurring in 1975). Even so, the spacecraft was travelling far to fast to ever enter orbit around Mercury.

Launched in 2004, NASA’s MESSENGER mission utilised a fly-by of Earth (2005), two of Venus (2006/07) and three with Mercury itself (2×2008, 1×2009)in order to initially accelerate it and adjust its orbit so it could reach Mercury, with the 3 fly-bys of the planet then being used to slow the spacecraft so that in 2011, it could use its thrusters to slow itself sufficiently to enter orbit, becoming the first probe from Earth to orbit Mercury at the start of a 4-year mission there.

Now a joint mission by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is about to become only the second mission to achieve orbit around Mercury and commence a joint period of study. It is, without hyperbole, one of the most complex missions ever undertaken, involving a multi-part space vehicle which includes two orbiters, and eight-year flight to Mercury, and no fewer than nine gravity assist fly-bys. The mission is called BepiColombo – named for the man who developed the concept of the gravity assist fly-by as noted above: mathematician, engineer and scientist, Giuseppe “Bepi” Colombo.

Giuseppe “Bepi” Colombo working on his idea of the spacecraft gravity-assist. Credit: ESA

Four in One, and One for All!

The mission comprises four main elements: three spacecraft stacked together for the voyage to Mercury, together with a special thermal shade and power relay unit. These are:

  • The Mercury Transfer Module (MTM): a vehicle built by ESA and combining chemical and solar electric propulsion as well as serving as the initial power bus and navigation system for the rest of the stack.
  • The Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO): a 1.15 tonne science satellite, again built by ESA and carrying a suite of 11 science instruments comprising cameras, spectrometers (IR, UV, X-ray, γ-ray, neutron), a radiometer, a laser altimeter, a magnetometer, particle analysers, a Ka-band transponder, and an accelerometer. The majority of these are located on the nadir side of the vehicle (the side constantly facing away from the Sun) for optimal performance.
  • The Mercury Magnetospheric Orbiter (MMO, also called Mio – meaning “water channel”, Mercury being known as the “water star” in Japan): a small, 285 kg satellite built by JAXA carrying a further 10 instruments, 6 of which are packaged into the combined Mercury Plasma Particle Experiment (MPPE), with the remaining four operating as independent instruments.
  • The Magnetospheric Orbiter Sunshield and Interface (MOSIF): a protective shroud for MMO to help with its thermal regulation during the mission’s time orbiting the Sun in order to reach Mercury, and to provide a power interface for MMO during this time.
2018: The MTM, with solar electric thruster ring fitted and red-back solar arrays in their stowed position, is prepared for lowering onto its mobility platform (left). To the right, the MPO sheathed in its white thermal blanketing and with its high gain antenna and solar array in their stowed positions, sits with the black cylinder of the MMO on top of it, the pair waiting to be mated to the top of the MTM. Credit: Astrium

First selected for development by ESA in 2000 as the last of the agency’s Horizon 2000+ programme, the mission was to have included a 44 kg lander. Had this been flown, it could have carried a dual imaging system (descent camera and surface camera), an x-ray spectrometer, magnetometer, a seismometer, a drilling system for obtaining sub-surface samples and a micro-rover! Unfortunately, budgetary constrains meant it was cancelled well before contracts for its design and construction were arranged.

The science packages carried by the mission are multi-national, with instruments supplied by ESA member states (Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK) together with Japan, Russia and the United States.

The Long Slog

Issues with developing the flight hardware – particularly the MTM’s solar electric propulsion system – led to a series of delays such that the mission did not launch until October 2018, just over 4 years after its target launch date of July 2014. Launch was aboard an Arianespace Ariane 5 booster – marking the 101st launch of that vehicle – out of Europe’s Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana.

It was the easiest part of the mission, putting the combined vehicle into a heliocentric orbit close to that of Earth but with a hyperbolic excess velocity of 3.475 km/s. This meant that 18 months after launch, the mission swung by Earth in April 10, 2020, performing a fly-by / gravity assist at an altitude at closest approach of 12,700 km. A combination of the time of the fly-by (04:25 UTC), the size of the spacecraft and the degree to which it reflected sunlight meant that in some quarters, it was mistaken for a previously unknown near-Earth asteroid and gained a temporary designation as such – 2020 GL2.

Passing Earth successfully, the vehicle moved onto a trajectory heading in towards the orbit of Venus, where it would eventually complete two further gravity assist in 2020 and 2021, accelerating it on towards Mercury. The first of the fly-bys of Venus came just after reports had been made that the biomarker phosphine (PH3) had been detected in Venus’s upper atmosphere, suggesting it might contain microbial life. Requests were made for the BepiColombo to use the instruments on MPO and MMO to try to detect PH3 as well, although doubt was expressed as to whether they would be able to, as they were not calibrated for phosphine detection. No report on any attempts to do so has ever been released by ESA or JAXA, suggesting either the attempts were not made, or they yielded negative results. The original claim was also cast into doubt after a series of Earth-based follow-up studies failed to locate any phosphine in Venus’ atmosphere.

The August 2021 fly-by of Venus was significant as it put BepiColombo on a direct intercept with Mercury, the fly-by taking place in October 2021. This allowed instruments aboard both MPO and MMO to be directed at their intended target, together with camera mounted on the MTM.

September 5, 2024, BepiColombo moves away from Mercury after its 4th fly-by of the planet, and the first one in which it passed over the planet’s south pole. This image was captured by the dual imaging system on the MTM module. Credit: ESA

Between October 2021 and January 2025, the mission completed six fly-bys of Mercury, allowing it to carry out a number of tasks. These included direct observations of the planet and measurements of its immediate environment, as well as helping to reduce the vehicle’s velocity so that it would eventually be able to enter orbit around the planet.

Originally, orbital insertion had been planned for December 2025, with the MTM to be jettisoned shortly ahead of that time, its job done. However, April 2024 saw the MTM’s solar electric thrusters develop a fault which prevented them for operating at full power, and would thus be unable to generate the thrust required to brake the spacecraft into orbit in December 2025. This resulted in the cruise phase of the mission being extended through November 2026, thus allowing the thrusters to be used in a series of lower-power firings over the extended cruise phase to help reduce its velocity such that it would be able to achieve orbital insertion.

On January 8, 2025, the sixth and final final fly-by of Mercury produced the shot taken along the planet’s terminator by the MTM imaging system. The tall impact peaks at the centre of craters Prokofiev and Tolkien can be seen reflecting sunlight. Credit: ESA

The last of these braking manoeuvres was completed in June 2026, successfully reducing the spacecraft’s velocity such that both the MPO and MMO would be able to enter orbit around Mercury under their own power. The solar electric thrusters on the MTM were therefore shut down for the last time, and the vehicle started its coast towards the mission’s Mercury Arrival Phase (MAP).

On September 3, 2026, this MAP phase of the mission commenced with the successful separation of the MTM, its work done. This means that the MPO is now the provider of power, navigation and propulsion for the mission. The next major milestone will come on November 21, 2026 as the spacecraft enter an initial 60-hour polar orbit around Mercury. Then, for a period of roughly 20 days, the MPO’s thrusters will be periodically used to drop that orbit to 9.3 hours and occupying with a perihermion of 590 km extending out to an apohermion of 11,640 km. At this point, MMO Mio will be spun-up and released into this orbit on December 10, 2026, allowing it to commence its primary mission, after which the MOSIF protective shield for MMO will be jettisoned, its job also done.

MPO will then continue to refine its orbit to 480 km x 1,500 km and a period of 2.36 hours through early 2027, prior to commencing its primary science mission around the start of April 2027.

And the Objective Is?

The primary objectives of the BepiColoumbo mission are to study the likely origin and evolution of a planet so close to its parent star; gain insight into Mercury’s actual form, interior, composition and internal structure; study the planet’s tiny and unstable exosphere (comprising, in decreasing order, hydrogen, helium, oxygen, sodium, calcium, potassium and other trace elements) and its magnetosphere, gain a greater understanding of its interactions with the solar atmosphere and – entirely separate to the planetary studies – test Einstein’s general theory of relativity.

The primary mission is expected to last around a year, with the potential for an extended mission (subject to funding and propellants) through until the end of December 2029. The overall cost of the mission from development through to launch and the end of the primary mission of €1.65 billion (US $1.86 billion).

Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope – Update

In my previous Space Sunday piece, and at the time of its launch, I covered some of the history of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (NGRST, or more simply, RST) together with some biographical notes about the woman after whom it was named. Since then, three further milestones have been passed:

  • On August 31, 2026, the critical mid course, 3-minute burn of the observatory’s thrusters system was successfully performed. At the time of writing, NASA were still evaluating whether a second mid-course correction manoeuvre would be required, the first was so accurate.
  • On September 1, 2026, the high-gain communications antenna was unfolded from the rear of the observatory and commenced testing.
  • Also on the same day, the deployable aperture cover, designed to protect the telescope’s optics from the light of the Sun, successfully unfurled and one of the two main science systems, the Coronagraph Instrument (CGI), was powered-up for initial testing.
An animation showing the opening of the deployable aperture coveron RST, September 1, 2026. Credit: NASA

If the second mid-course correction burn is not required at it heads for its halo orbit around the Sun-Earth Lagrange L2 position, it will mean the observatory will have a small additional reserve of propellants to help with it regime of on-orbit station-keeping manoeuvres, one of which will be required roughly every 28 days once it enters its planned operational orbit around the L2 position.

Still to come is the powering-up of the Wide Field Instrument (WFI) suite and its initial check-out, after which the telescope will enter fully into a pre-commissioning phase of operations.

Space Sunday: China’s Chang’e 7, more Kessler and an update

An artist’s rendering of Chang’e 7 in lunar orbit. Visible is the cylindrical orbiter (left) with the lander mounted on top of it (right). Neither the rover nor the hoper are visible. Credit: CCTV

China is about to launch its most ambitious lunar mission to date in the form of Chang’e 7, which will be heading for the edge of Shackleton Crater in the Lunar South Polar Region – the part of the Moon both the US and China have identified as the target for their upcoming crewed lunar missions.

Over the past two decades, the Chang’e missions – named for the moon goddess of Chinese mythology – have been a mainstay of China’s space ambitions and marked the nation’s growing space capabilities. The previous mission, Chang’e 6, saw a lander touchdown on the lunar farside – the first mission ever to do so –, deploy a rover and return surface samples to Earth for international analysis.

The 8-tonne Chang’e 7 mission is somewhat similar to Chang’e 6 in that it comprises an orbiter, a lander and a rover vehicle; however, it will not be returning samples to Earth for analysis. Instead, its primary role is to look for evidence of accessible water ice around the crater and carry out initial prospecting for a location where China might start landing materiel and crew to establish a lunar base.

As such, it marks the start of China’s fourth phase of lunar missions, the others being orbital observation (Chang’e 1 and 2), the second landing and rover deployments (Chang’e 3 and 4), the third nearside and farside sample return missions (Chang’e 5 and Chang’e 6 respectively).

The 24 km wide, 4 km deep Shackleton Crater lies at the Moon’s south pole (which is located near the crater rim at the top right of this image). The crater rim tends to be lit by sunlight with the bottom of the crater remaining in cold shadow. Chang’e 7 is aiming to land somewhere on the crater’s rim and search for evidence of water ice whilst carrying out other studies. Credit: NASA

If all goes according to plan, Chang’e 7 will launch atop a Long March 5 (CZ-5) booster from the Wenchang launch centre and will coast out to the Moon over a period of 6 days on a minimal propellant flight. This will see it essentially spiral away from Earth until the Moon’s gravitational influence becomes dominant and the spacecraft will then transfer to spiralling in towards lunar orbit.

Once at the Moon, Chang’e 7 will become the most ambitious robotic lunar mission ever undertaken, with the lander aiming to make a precise landing high on the rim of Shackleton Crater where it can receive the most sunlight. Providing it does so successfully, it will deploy the rover vehicle – a more advanced unit than previously flown – together with a unique surface “hopper”.

A rendering of the Chang’e 7 rover, said to be a more advanced version of the Yutu rovers flown to the Moon on previous missions, designed to carry out a comprehensive surface survey mission to help prepare the way for human landings. Credit: CCTV

A total of 21 science experiments – including instruments from the USA, Russia, Egypt and Bahrain, and Italy – are being carried across the four vehicles. The orbiter will carry out stereo mapping and radar mapping of the lunar surface in extremely high resolution, together with hyperspectral and spectral analysis of surface material from orbit, magnetic field analysis, surface radiation analysis, and solar radiation / space weather monitoring.

The lander will analyse lunar dust and the local electrical field, listen for moonquakes, evaluate the surface environment – radiation, dust ionisation – and carry out astronomical observations from the Moon’s surface, as well as imaging the local topography. The rover will carry out wider-ranging field studies, analysing the lunar surface for volatile and isotope concentrations, monitoring the local magnetic field, examining the subsurface composition via ground penetrating radar and imaging its surroundings as part of the survey to identify possible landing zone for future missions.

The hopper is a new type of vehicle. Relatively small it is designed to explore the more shadowed regions of smaller craters, etc., by literally hopping around on a set of legs. It is design to hop into an area of shadow and expose surface material under the lunar dust via the impact of its landing legs, then make a small jump to one side so it can use a combination drill / water analyser to gather samples of the material exposed by the initial landing, in order to analyse it for evidence of water ice.

A close-up of an early model of the Chang’e 7 lunar hopper, showing five of the 6 legs. The vertical grey mast at the rear of the hopper is the drilling rig. Credit: CAST / CNSA

All of the data gathered – including gaining a more complete understanding of overall surface lighting and areas of near-constant illumination around Shackleton – will be carried forward into planning for China’s human missions to the Moon, which are due to commence in 2030.

New Study Updates Kessler Syndrome Risk

I’ve written on numerous occasions about the increasing risk of a Kessler syndrome cascade: a single collision in the increasingly crowded domain of near-Earth space resulting in the low-to-medium regime of orbits around our planet becoming unusable in part or in full as the debris from the first collision destroys other satellites in a spreading sphere of destruction.

In this contrasted rendering, each visible orange dot represents a satellite being actively tracked in low Earth orbit (up to 2,000 km and the dense cloud around the planet), medium Earth orbit (the larger sphere of dots around the planet – extending from 2,000 to 35,000 km) and geostationary orbit (the central band around the medium orbit sphere, at some 39,500 km). Credit: NASA

However, trying to calculate the actual risk of such an event occurring has been difficult because the Kessler syndrome model was based on high altitude, relatively passive satellites – that is, units which do not have to “fly in formation” relative to one another at much lower, more crowded obits where they have to dodge potential risks posed by other orbital bodies – other active satellites, rocket debris, defunct satellites awaiting re-entry and burn-up, space stations, and so on – which is precisely what modern constellations launched over the last 5-8 years have to do. Take Starlink, for example: it currently has some 10,900-11,000 active satellites in orbit – and all of them have to perform at least one avoidance manoeuvre every week. And SpaceX plans to expand that constellation to 42,000 active units.

To try to better understand the real risk of collision, Professor Hugh Lewis of the University of University, UK, has been updating the Kessler models to reflect how modern day satellite constellations actually behave, taking into consideration things like active collision avoidance, the risk of thruster failures resulting in loss of control, relative proximity of satellites in a constellation “layer” (i.e. operating at the same altitude and close enough to one another for low-latency communications relay), continuous replenishment rates (i.e. defunct satellites get replaced in the constellation), and de-orbital drag profiles based on the geometry of the satellites themselves.

Using this updated framework, Lewis analysed 14 planned or partially operational satellite constellations (e.g. Starlink at its current 11,000 active units and planned 42,000) to place them in one of three categories:

  • Below Thresholds: a single collision is unlikely to cause a significant issue, and Earth orbital space remains a sustainable operational environment.
  • Exceed Unstable threshold: a single collision will cause a Kessler cascade which will initially increase prior to stabilising, resulting a balance between those orbital regimes which remain usable and those that are rendered unusable due to the volume of debris remaining in orbit at their altitudes.
  • Exceed Runaway threshold: a single collision resulting in infinite fragment growth and a guaranteed loss of all of the satellites within the constellation – and a possible complete Kessler syndrome cascade.

Of the 14 constellations analysed, over half already sit within the Exceed categories (both unstable and runaway). Leaving aside those which have yet to be launched (if they ever are) such as the deeply flawed “AI data centre” constellations, this is worrying on two counts.

An animation of orbital debris hitting a satellite. Credit: ESA

The first is that the study shows that even a modest constellation can have a significant effect if it is subject to a collision. Consider Eutelsat’s Next constellation, for example. This will comprise just 528 units, but it sits within the Exceed Unstable threshold: a single collision between two of the satellites in the network will result in a large portion of the bandwidth of the low Earth orbit regime (up to 2,000 km above Earth) becoming unusable for other satellites, because Next will orbit sufficiently high enough for the resulting debris cloud to take years to fully disperse and re-enter the atmosphere to burn-up.

The second – more worrying – factor is that the analysis only considers the effect of two satellites within a constellation colliding with one another, and the impact this has on the remaining satellites in the constellation.

So, for example, the analysis only considers how the debris from a collision involving two Starlink satellites will affect other Starlink satellites; it doesn’t consider how the debris could affect satellites from, say, China’s GuoWang (15,000 planned) and Qianfan (13,000 planned) operating in pretty much the same orbital plane and altitude, or how that debris might then cause a further cascade of destruction. Nor does the analysis consider the potential for a sufficiently large, stray piece of debris already in orbit to destroy a satellite and so set off a chain of destruction.

Currently available on arXiv whilst awaiting formal peer review, the Lewis paper – Critical Sizes of Satellite Constellations – offers no solutions for the growing risk, but does suggest regulators need to enforce a more rigorous approach to the potential for a full or partial Kessler syndrome event than current methods of debris analysis allow. These consider only how an individual satellite will fragment should it experience an impact sufficient enough to cause it to break-up not the additional effect the break-up would have given the satellite’s orbit and operating proximity to other satellites.

NASA Ends Swift Observatory Rescue but Maintains Mission

In June I covered the daring attempt to rescue a NASA satellite – the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory – from re-entering Earth’s atmosphere in October 2026 and burning up, by using another spacecraft to link up with it and gently push it up to a higher orbital altitude (see: Space Sunday: NASA – a rescue attempt, costs & infrastructure).

Whilst the mission started off well, by the start of August 2026, things had gone sideways, as I noted at the time, with the rescue vehicle – called LINK, and built by Arizona-based Katalyst Space Technologies – itself in trouble after two of its three reaction wheels (used to maintain precise vehicle orientation) had ceased functioning, whilst its cold gas thrusters were also experiencing issues.

A set of an artist’s renderings of LINK in space and rendezvousing with Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, ready to gently push it up to a safe operating altitude before atmospheric drag causes it to re-enter the atmosphere and burn up. Credit: Katalyst Space

On August 19, 2026 NASA called off the rescue attempt – but not the mission as a whole. Essentially, the loss of precise attitude control means that LINK cannot safely connect to the Swift observatory without the risk of a full-on collision. Instead, the spacecraft will now rendezvous with the observatory and carry out approach and operations intended to allow Katalyst to gain data and experience in such manoeuvres as they prepare to start operating a larger recovery craft in future missions.

At a cost of just US $230 million, Swift has been an invaluable science platform and its loss will be felt. The rescue attempt – at just US $30 million has not been a major expenditure, but it was something of a rushed job; despite being aware that Swift would re-enter the atmosphere in 2026, NASA didn’t opt to go ahead with trying to save Swift until late 2025, giving Katalyst just nine months to develop and fly the LINK craft- which is a remarkable feat, even if the outcome isn’t as hoped.

Another Partial Eclipse – Seen from another World

August 12, 2026, as I’ve previously covered (here and here) allowed part of the northern hemisphere – Greenland, Iceland, Spain, in particular – to witness a total solar eclipse, with a partial eclipse being also visible from many areas on both sides of the Atlantic. It was a widely reported event, and the start of a new decade of eclipse watching.

What was less well reported was that just a day later, there was another partial eclipse of the Sun – but this didn’t involve our own Moon and was only seen by one observer: NASA’s Mars 2020 rover, Perseverance.

A magnified and contrast-enhanced image captured by the Mastcam system on NASA’s Mars 2020 rover, Perseverance, showing the 26 km wide Martian moon Phobos (approx. 6,000km from the planet) transiting the disk of the Sun (averaging 229 million km from Mars) to create an eclipse. Credit: NASA/JPL

On August 13, 2026, the rover took time out from exploring the region around Jezero Crater, where it landed in 2021, to look up at the sky with its Mastcam imager to capture Mars’ near most moon, Phobos, transiting the disk of the Sun.

Of course, given Phobos is relatively tiny – less that 26 km across its largest side – means it didn’t come anywhere close to offering so spectacular event as we can witness when our own Moon comes between us and the Sun, but the event was still notable – if not for science, then at least for the impact of being able to see such events from other worlds.

Space Sunday: Europa’s ice, the eclipse, + a rocket goes BANG!

A rendering of Europa, showing the believed subsurface ocean lying over the warm mantle and under the surface ice crust, and in the inset, how this ocean is likely kept liquid. Note, particularly, the deep ice of the crust and the theorised reservoirs of water within the ice, theorised to be formed by ocean water coming up through the ice – an idea now challenged in a new study. Credit: NASA/JPL

The subject of Jupiter’s moon Europa is rather hot at the moment. With two major missions currently en-route to Jupiter to study this icy world – NASA’s Europa Clipper mission, which will focus entirely on Europa, and the European Space Agency’s Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (Juice) mission, there have been various science papers of late on the subject of liquid water on Europa – two of which I covered most recently at the start of the year.

Those two studies directly speculated on the opportunities for Europa – assuming it does have a relatively warm, liquid ocean sitting under this icy crust – to be the abode of basic life, and with somewhat differing outcomes.

Animation of the Laplace resonance of Io, Europa and Ganymede, showing how Io and Ganymede exert gravitational influence over Europa, most likely causing tidal flexing which helps generate heat within the moon, which it turn helps keeps its ocean liquid. Credit; Matma Rex

While it seems likely that Europa does – through a combination of interior heating and a similar kind of tidal flexing experienced by volcanically active neighbouring Io – have sufficient heat to give rise to a liquid water ocean under its surface, the problems remains of how to get down to that ocean and probe for signs of basic life.

The most common idea for this has been to actually land on Europa and drill down into the ice to obtain deep core samples which might contain minerals and other deposits indicative that the Moon has potentially habitable zones in its ocean – or even to get an automated mini-sub to actually explore the waters under the ice.

The problem here is that we now know that the ice of Europa’s crust is around 30 km thick – that’s not something easily drilled through to any significant depth. Such a thickness of ice also casts doubt on the idea that – based on images and data obtained by the Hubble Space Telescope (2012/13) and the Galileo spacecraft (1995-2003) respectively – water is escaping up from the ocean through crack in the ice  as water vapour geysers.

As a result, the focus of efforts to try to reach liquid water on Europa and gather samples or remote analysis shifted to trying to analyse what appear to be reservoirs of water actually within the ice crust itself, in the belief that these “lakes” were being created by warm water forcing its way up through faults and cracks in the ice and then spreading horizontally through the ice strata – and that this might also be causing the geysers of water vapour believed to have been seen.

However, more recently, revisiting the data from Hubble and Galileo has cast doubt on the idea that Europa is geysering water vapour into space. On top of this, a new study led by scientists from Rutgers University now casts credible doubt on the idea of warm water pushing its way up through 20-30km of ice so as to be close enough to the surface so that when the surface ice breaks as a result of the flexing mentioned above, it could escape as a vast outgassing of water vapour.

The models previously used for determining whether warm water could form conduits up through Europa’s ice from the ocean and then exploit weaknesses within the strata of ice were based on the mechanics of magma here on Earth, which operates in a fairly uniform manner.  Given the apparent nature of cryovolcanism among various bodies around the solar system, this idea of uniform action appeared reasonable.

A rendering of Europa’s interior, as the modern consensus of opinion see it: a 30 km outer crust with a water ocean approx 100 km deep, either fully liquid or a mix of liquid water and semi-frozen ice and slush, and a large rocky mantle heated by an iron core due to gravitational flexing. Credit: Kelvinsong

The Rutgers’ study however, looked at the behaviour water is volcanic-like systems and found that its behaviour is far more turbulent than found with denser magma, with convection currents being far more extensive, particularly as warm warm came into direct contact with ice of a density  similar to that measured on Europa.

So instead of the water simple melting and forcing its way up through cracks it forced into conduits, the Rutgers study found the the water would quickly start forming convention currents: the warm water rising up into cracks, with its outer edges rapidly cooling as it made contact with the ice, forming a convection current of rising and descending water – with the latter carrying ice crystals melted off the the ice before the water cooled. These crystals would then clump and cool the water further, eventually choking the entire flow long before the water could rise up through the ice far enough so it could form a reservoir which a) would remain liquid and b) be available to escape as a geyser if the remaining ice above it cracked open.

But given there is data indicating bodies of water are suspended within Europa’s ice, and if they are not formed by warm water forcing its way up from below, what is forming it? The Rutgers’ study suggests a simple, somewhat elegant solution: as noted, Europa is in tidal flux and subject to interior heating; its curst is cracked and line as a result of stress fracturing from this motion. This cracking and fracturing will result in frictional rubbing between different elements of ice and different densities of the ice strata – and friction melts ice.

If the Rutger’s study is correct, it would suggest that trying to obtain samples of any water trapped within Europa’s icy crust is unlikely to reveal much about the potential of the underlying ocean having all the mineral and chemical elements present to give life a kick-start. This does not negate the study of Europa as a whole; there is still much to find out about it – including whether or not the ocean believed to exist there is actually liquid water (rather than, say, an icy slush) – it just underscores the fact that nothing about Europa can really be taken for granted.

Imaging the Eclipse

The diamond ring starts to form (right) in this image by Daisy Dobrijevic, a passenger aboard MS Sitsbergen on an eclipse cruise, august 12, 2026

August 12 saw a total / partial eclipse visible across the north Atlantic and a good portion of western Europe. Whilst the path of totality was predominantly lay across the Atlantic, it did touch eastern Greenland, western Iceland and part of northern Spain and Portugal, with up to 98% partiality witnessed from parts of northern Europe.

Here are some images of the event which have been publicly released.

The diamond ring in a deeper colour view, the Sun’s corona clearly visible in this image from amateur astronomer Spain-Deborah Simpson in Spain

Obviously, those sitting along the line of totality got the greatest views of the eclipse – bot that’s not to say those only witnessing a partial eclipse missed out, as “Mr photon” from Switzerland demonstrated, with the assistance of a local hot air ballooning event!

Credit: “Mr. Photon”

Long March 7A Explodes After launch

Just to show western rockets have exclusivity on exploding, on August 10, 2026, China suffered a failure with a Long March 7A booster.

A variant of the Long March 7 (CZ-7) workhorse, capable of lobbing just under 14 tonnes to low Earth orbit (LEO) and 7 tonnes to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), the CZ-7A was first launched in 2020 and up until the August 10 launch, had a record for 16 successful flights out of 17 launches.

The launch was intended to deliver a Zhongxing-4B telecommunications and broadband internet satellite to GTO, the rocket lifting-off from the Wenchang Space Launch Site, Hainan province at 12:00 noon UTC on August 10. The flight appeared to be proceeding well until 85 seconds after launch, when the vehicle exploded.

August 10, 2026: A long March 7A (CZ-7A) rocket explodes over China, 86=5 seconds after launch. Credit: Meng Zhongde

It is not clear exactly what happened, but the timing of the flight suggests that the explosion occurred as the vehicle was experiencing “max-Q” – when the structure is facing the maximum in aerodynamic stresses as it accelerates and tries to punch its way through the denser atmosphere. Some reports suggest that this might have resulted in the forward, upper section of the rocket suffering a structural failure, however, amateur footage taken of the launch appears to show an initial explosive flare near the base of the vehicle, which appears to have split it in two, prior to a second explosion occurring.

This might be significant, as the very first flight of the CZ-7A in 2020 is said to have been result of a pressurisation failure in one of the rocket’s four strap-on boosters – although that particular vehicle loss came some 168 seconds into the flight.

The Long March 7 family has an interesting operation in regards to its core stage and side boosters. While such arrangements are common in rocket systems, in most, the side boosters tend to be jettisoned once they’ve carried out the work of initially accelerating the booster and getting it through “max-Q”, lightening the load and allowing the first stage to continue to power the rocket until its fuel is expended. However, with the Long March 7, the side boosters and core stage are jettisoned as a single unit, generally around 170-175 seconds into the flight.

At the time of writing, some 5 days after the vehicle loss, the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) has not commented on the event, other than to state it is under investigation. Whether or not any reason for the vehicle loss will be given in the future is unclear – while there is speculation as to the cause of the loss of the first CZ-7A in 2020, China has never officially revealed the cause of that loss, and the same could be seen with this vehicle as well.

Space Sunday: an eclipse, deadly dust, and updates

As the August 12, 2026 partial eclipse might be seen from the coast of Cornwall in the UK.

August 12, 2026 will see a total solar eclipse sweep across the Atlantic Ocean, the path of totality – in which the disk of the Moon completely covers that of the Sun as seen from Earth – extending down from the Arctic Ocean, across eastern Greenland and western Iceland before traversing the Atlantic to pass over northern Spain, the Balearics and parts of the Mediterranean before coming to an end as the Sun and Moon seem to part company once more.

The path of totality is not wide – just 393 kilometres across; but you don’t have to be completely within it in order to witness the eclipse. Countries to both the east and west will be witness to a partial eclipse, with much of western Europe – Scandinavia, the British Isles, France, the low countries, Germany and Italy in particular – will be treated to an evening partial eclipse to varying degrees, complete with a darkening of the skies as the disk of the Moon obscures a fair portion of the Sun, as if taking a bite out of it. For those in Europe who – weather permitting – would like to witness the event, here’s a quick outline of when and where to look and what to expect:

  • Start of eclipse time:
    • British Isles: 17:10 to 17:16 UTC (18:10-18:16 BST);  maximum period of eclipse: 18:05-18:15 UTC (19:05-19:15 BST) – times varying according to latitude.
    • Europe: one hour later for either (UTC or daylight / summer time).
  • Direction of eclipse: west / north-west (depending on latitude).
  • Duration of maximum partial eclipse and percentage of Sun covered: 2-2.5 minutes, between 75% and 95% of the Sun’s disk covered.
  • Best coastal locations for observation: western coastal areas with uninterrupted sea views (e.g. west coasts of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Prembrokshire, together with the Scilly Isles and  north coasts of Cornwall and Devon for the British Isles).
  • Best inland locations: elevated areas to avoid horizon obstructions.
  • Locations subject to total eclipse in Europe: the Spanish mainland cities of Bilbao, Santander, Valladolid, Burgos, Zaragoza and Valencia and their immediate surroundings, plus Palma, Mallorca.

If you do decide to watch the eclipse it is essential you follow safety guidelines, including:

  • Projecting the image of a eclipse using a telescope. Credit: Sky & Telescope

    NEVER look directly at the Sun with the naked eye OR when wearing sunglasses. The latter will not provide the levels of protection required, and looking at the Sun in either of these ways can result in serious eye damage.

  • If you plan to use solar eclipse glasses, make sure they are certified to ISO 12312-2. Also, if they are the kind with cardboard frames be sure to HOLD them in place; lightweight solar glasses can easily be dislodged by a breeze or by being bumped, potentially resulting in eye damage.
  • NEVER, EVER look at the Sun via a telescope or with binoculars without using a fully certified Sun filter system designed specifically for your equipment. If you do not have either, then use projection – position the telescope / binoculars so that the image of the Sun is being cast on a suitable flat surface (such a smooth pavement or piece of cardboard  – be careful over over-heating the latter!) and observing the eclipse by watching the image, not by looking through the lens – see the image to the right as a guide.
NEVER look directly at the Sun with the naked eye or when using sunglasses, and certainly not via binoculars or a telescope or camera viewfinder / screen. ALWAYS use properly-certified solar glasses and solar filters suitable for the equipment you are using. Image credit: Getty library stock

Given European weather can be a pain at times (let’s face it, we may be in a heatwave, but that doesn’t stop Mother Nature from being awkward on the day and cluttering the sky with clouds!), and given the limited opportunities for really good viewing, the best way to witness the eclipse could be on-line. NASA live, for example will be showing the entire eclipse. and in mentioning NASA I should note that those in Eastern Canada and the United States will also be able to see a partial eclipse, but the coverage of the Sun by the Moon will be much less than will be seen from Europe.

A number of space-related and astronomy sites will also be either livestreaming or blogging the event with photographic updates, so Google is your friend for finding these.

The eclipse can be tracked using Xavier Jubier’s Interactive Google Maps Eclipse Tracker

nor is that all; August 12 marks what eclipse hunters are calling a “golden age” of total solar eclipses visible from more accessible locations around the world over the next decade. Some of these will be:

  • August 2, 2027: Spain, Gibraltar, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, British Indian Ocean Territory.
  • June 22, 2028: Christmas Island, Cocos Islands, Australia, New Zealand.
  • November 25, 2030: Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho and Australia.
  • March 20, 2034: Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and China.
  • September 2, 2035: China, North Korea, Japan.

For the poor old British Isles, the next total eclipse to be directly visible across the countries will occur on September 23 – 2090!

Humans to Mars: The Risks of Deadly Dust

At some point in the (hopefully not-too-distant) future, humans will set foot on Mars. However for any nation or group of nations attempting this goal there are a number of challenges to be addressed, particularly in the areas of human psychology and welfare. One of those most frequently mentioned is that of radiation, both solar and galactic; however, whilst a major factor in planning for any human missions to Mars, the focus on radiation does tend to overshadow another equally hazardous issue: Martian dust.

Like the Moon, Mars is an extremely dusty environment. During Apollo, lunar dust caused numerous issues, from spacesuit erosion and compromising suit seals and joints, through getting into electrical and air circulation systems and causing overheating issues to most particularly getting into eyes, sinuses and ears to cause irritation, and into pulmonary systems where it could cause respiratory issues if not treated. Fortunately, the Apollo missions weren’t of a length where the health implications reached a point of any serious debilitation. On Mars, humans will face similar challenges, but to a much greater degree, both because of the nature of the dust and because of the duration of any mission.

Gene Cernan, the commander of the Apollo 17 lunar mission, photographed by crewmate Harrison Schmitt aboard the lunar module Challenger following their first surface EVA, December 11, 1972. Note the dust accumulation on his space suit. Credit: NASA / Schmitt.

While Martian dust – sometimes call “fines” on account of its extremely tiny nature and shape – carries similar and harmful silicates to those contained within lunar dust, it also carries perchlorates and metals like chromium, beryllium, arsenic, and cadmium, all of which are extremely toxic to humans and living cells. Given the duration of a typical humans-to-Mars mission (36-40 months), a crew continuously exposed to dust inhalation without proper precautions being taken, face potentially very serious health risks.

The concern is that future crews will be living and working in a closed habitat, repeatedly going outside, bringing dust back in on suits and equipment, in a low-humidity environment. That’s a condition in which small particles are more prone to becoming airborne and potentially inhaled, with crew members being exposed to fine respirable particles over many days, leading to a real possibility of developing cardiovascular and pulmonary illnesses – even cancers – within the lifespan of a mission.

– Shaunna Morrison, Associate Professor, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University

Some of this can potentially countered through technology options such as the use of suitports and the use of high-filtration HVAC systems incorporating advanced and magnetic filters (Mars dust having high concentrations of metals, as noted). However, the Martian Dust Limiting Working Group – a cross-disciplinary group of scientists, doctors and engineers looking at the issue of Martian dust exposure – conclude that a lot of the risk mitigation is going to be via continuous regime of medication from daily intakes of vitamins through to things like iodine doses and supplements, together with the use of cough medicines and bronchodilators to manage inevitable periods of short-term inhalation.

One of the major takeaways from the Mars Dust Working Group is that Martian dust is a real crew-health and engineering issue, but it is also a tractable one if it is treated as a design requirement from the beginning. The best strategy is prevention first. Keep as much dust as possible outside the habitat, remove it quickly when it gets in, monitor airborne particles, and incorporate medical countermeasures into daily routine so crews are not purely relying on them as purely as a possibly limited after-exposure treatment.

– Shaunna Morrison

Layers of dust accumulated on the deck of the Mars 2020 rover Perseverance after 5 years of operations on Mars, July 2026.

This, coupled with the need for daily routines of exercise and training – particularly during the transit periods to / from Mars – is why those embarking on the initial missions to Mars and engaged in establishing a possible permanent human presence there will need to be highly trained and highly disciplined. They will be facing a range of potential health hazards and and psychological challenges which  make the idea that anyone other than those who have undergone a broad range of physical and mental training and have the capacity to face the ardours of a 36-40 period of continuous living within a deadly environment can participate in such an undertaking a complete fiction.

Updates

Blue Origin Reveal NG-4 Explosion Cause

On May 28, 2026 during a pre-flight engine test while on the launch pad, the New Glenn rocket that was set to undertake the vehicle’s fourth flight exploded, destroying itself and the entire launch pad, and causing significant damage to the supporting infrastructure.

The moment of total destruction: the complete New Glenn rocket “stack” is destroyed on May 28, 2026 as 1,200 tonnes of propellants in the first stage tanks explode, sending a mushroom fire cloud into the sky over the Florida Space Coast. Via: AP News

Since that time, Blue Origin has been working to recover and rebuild the New Glenn launch facility at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), and also carry out an investigation into what caused the explosion, said to have been in the one kiloton TNT range.

with regards to the latter, on Wednesday August 5, 2026, Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp reported via social media that the cause of the explosion has now been identified and is being addressed:

The anomaly originated at the main oxygen valve on one of the BE-4 engines, which was later confirmed by hardware recovery and inspections. Extensive component-level and engine hotfire tests have been conducted to understand the failure mode better and inform mitigations.

– David Limp, Blue Origin CEO

Work at Launch Complex 36, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, destroyed in the NG-4 explosion, is proceeding apace. The current focus is on carefully dismantling the lightning conductor tower (centre), so that its damaged lower extremes can be replaced / repaired, prior to the tower being being rebuilt a a vehicle launch tower for future New Glenn 7×2 and 9×4 launches. Credit: Blue Origin

As a result of these tests and the forensic examination of vehicle wreckage, Blue Origin has made a series of modifications to the valve in question which will be incorporated in the production of future BE-4 motors and can be installed into the existing engines awaiting flight / reflight opportunities. This does not mean the FAA Mishap investigation into the explosion has been closed – additional fault tree analysis is continuing to determine if other factors may have been in play. However, Limp indicates that this is most like the key cause of the vehicle loss; as such, it would seem likely that the investigation will be formally closed in the next few months.

In the meantime, work on getting the launch facilities at CCSFS are now well in-hand, and Blue Origin remains of the opinion that the facilities and New Glenn could be ready to resume operations by the end of 2026.

Voyager 2: Instrument Shutdown Reprieve

Diagram of the Voyager spacecraft. Credit: NASA

It’s incredible to think that NASA’s twin Voyager spacecraft will, in a year’s time, mark the 50th anniversary of their respective launches (September and August 1977). The two craft are now so far from Earth (and travelling in interstellar space beyond the boundary of the solar system) it takes over a day for signals sent to or from them to be received.

Sadly, both vehicles are also dying – at least in terms of their available electrical power – as the reserves of plutonium within their radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) reach a point where the heat created through its nuclear decay becomes increasingly less able to generate the electricity required to power each vehicle’s science and other systems. As a result, NASA has been slowly turning off various instruments on each vehicle in the hopes of eking out power to keep the most useful (in interstellar space terms) functioning. In April 2026, for example, the Low-energy Charged Particles (LECP) experiment on Voyager 1 was shut down, leaving that craft with just 2 of its original 10 science systems functioning.

It had been expected that a similar move would have to be made with Voyager 2 in the second half 2026, to also leave it with only two functioning science instruments. However, in their latest piece of deep space engineering wizardry worthy of Montgomery Scott of the USS Enterprise, NASA engineers have worked out a means to re-route power through some of the spacecraft’s non-science systems at much lower levels than had previously been required, thus allowing power to be maintain to all three of the surviving science instruments.

Referred to by the mission’s engineering team as the “Big Bang” power change because of the risk it could figuratively blow up in their faces, this re-routing means that Voyager 2 now has enough electrical power capacity to run all three of its remaining instruments for up to a year before thought will have to again be given to shutting one down.

Voyager 2 is now being monitored to ensure there are no unwanted side-effects resulting from the change. Providing none are found, it is likely a similar operation will be performed across the 25.5 billion kilometres separating Earth from Voyager 1 so that it might continue to have sufficient electrical power to run its two surviving instruments for longer than had been anticipated.

Space Sunday: back to Betelgeuse and some updates

Betelgeuse is the red supergiant star in the shoulder of Orion. After decades of guessing, study and data-gathering, the long-theorised companion star thought to be orbiting Betelgeuse has been imaged – the bright dot in the left inset, marked by cross hairs. The circle marks were Betelgeuse should be in the image, but it has been removed (but shown in the centre inset), to make the companion more obvious in the image. Credit: ESO/M. Montargès et al. (background star field for illustration only, via skysurvey.org).

In 2019/2020 I covered, the excitement caused by the apparent and sudden dimming of Betelgeuse, the variable red supergiant in the constellation of Orion, when the star dropped from being the 10th brightest object in the night skies to the 27th before it recovered in early 2020. At the time there was much speculation on whether we were seeing the first signs the star had undergone a supernova explosion some 600 years ago (roughly the time it takes the light from the star to reach us). Obviously, this wasn’t the case, and the “great dimming” as it is now called was eventually pinned on something more mundane.

To put it simply, massive red giants like Betelgeuse are comparatively short-lived, in the order of 10-20 million years, rapidly burning through their stocks of hydrogen, and successively heavier elements in turn. As they do so – and before they reach a point where the fusion process can no longer be sustained as the energy to power it exceeds the amount of energy produced by it, causing the star’s core to collapse under its own gravity in less than a second and then immediately exploding outward again in a supernova – they go through some notable changes. Firstly, as each fusion cycle – helium, carbon, etc. – occurs at higher and higher temperatures, the red giant massively expands into a red supergiant. Secondly, they become violent, throwing off massive amounts of super-heated gas.

Betelgeuse, at around 8.5 million years of age is well into both of these phases; it expended its supply of hydrogen a very long time ago, expanding to its present size  of around 600-700 times bigger than the Sun. and it is periodically throwing off vast amounts of super-heated gas into space. With regards to the latter, it is now largely agreed that it was one of these clouds of material which caused the illusion of the “great /dimming”.

Thrown out by Betelgeuse so long ago it had long since cooled to the point it could not be seen from Earth, the cloud gradually drifted in front of our view of Betelgeuse during 2019, giving the impression the star was dimming dramatically. Then, as the dust then moved out of our line-of-sight with Betelgeuse in early 2020, the star appeared to return to its expected luminosity.

An artist’s impression of the 2019/2020 “great dimming”. At some point in the past, a large mass of superheat gas was ejected from Betelgeuse close to the direction in which Earth lay relative to the star (l). Over time, this material and cooled to a point where it could not longer be seen from Earth (2). In 2019, the cloud of dust came between Earth and our view of Betelgeuse, giving the impression the star had dramatically dimmed. Credit: Elizabeth Wheatley, STScl

As mundane as the explanation for the “great dimming” might be, it nevertheless caused a renewed interest in another of Betelgeuse’s mysteries: does it have a companion star orbiting it? It’s a question astronomers have been trying to answer for almost 100 years; but the very nature of Betelgeuse – its pulsing variability which makes even accurately determining its distance from Earth difficult (it’s thought to be about 640 light-years away, with a margin of error of +/- 146 light years); the huge and glowing masses of super-heated gases surrounding it, etc., – make finding any companion exceptionally difficult.

However, 2024 two separate studies carried were out in the wake of the “great dimming”, examining the gas clouds and the star’s coronasphere to see if there was evidence for either being affected the mass of a stellar object passing through them. Both studies yielded positive results but came to very different conclusions. The first study concluded the companion was either a white dwarf stellar remnant roughly the size of Earth or a neutron star some 10-20 km across. Either way, it likely had a mass roughly equitable to the Sun. However, the second study concluded the companion was almost equitable in size and mass to the Sun, and orbiting Betelgeuse so close it will likely be consumed by the larger star within 10,000 years.

Following up on these studies in 2025, a NASA team observed Betelgeuse using the Gemini North Observatory in Hawai’i. They pretty much confirmed the second of the 2024 studies: there did appear to be a companion star orbiting very close to Betelgeuse; however it appeared to be an F-type pre-main sequence star with roughly 1.5 to 1.6 times the mass of the Sun. Such was the NASA team’s confidence in their findings, they informally named the star: Siwarha, meaning “her bracelet” in Arabic, reflecting the fact that Betelgeuse means “the hand of al-Jawzā”. The name was subsequently accepted by the International Astronomical Union (IAU).

A visualisation created by the National Optical-Infrared Astronomy Research Laboratory using data captured via the Gemini North Observatory in 2025, showing Betelgeuse, minus its coronasphere (which would otherwise obscure the companion star with its own brightness) in orange; and in blue, the light of its companion star: Siwarha. Credit: NASA Ames / NOIRLab

More recently, a team of astronomers used the data from the NASA study to calculate where Siwarha would be at the furthest distance its orbit would carry from Betelgeuse as seen from Earth, and the time at which this would occur. They used these calculations to direct the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) cluster in Chile to observe Betelgeuse at the specified time to try to both image Siwraha and gather more data that might be used to better characterise it.

The results were both satisfying and a little mystifying. On the one hand, Siwraha was exactly where the calculations said it would be, and the team were able to image it. However, the data gathered by the VLT’s instruments suggest Siwarha is a B-type main-sequence star some three times the mass of the Sun and between 2 and six times its size – in other words, very different to the star indicated by the NASA study.

There could be many reasons for this; as noted, trying to identify a stellar body which would effectively be little more than a marble compared to Betelgeuse’s soccer ball, and in so dynamic a region of space, isn’t easy. So as the VLT team note, more observations are required to better understand Siwarha’s nature. But in the meantime, it would seem that the 100-year-old question on whether or not Betelgeuse has a companion has been affirmatively answered.

An enlarged view of Siwarha showing its coronasphere (larger dot in the cross hairs and the bright dot of the star itself. Betelgeuse (which would be where the circle is located) has been digitally removed, to make Siwarha clearer. Credit: ESO/M. Montargès et al.

And what of the potential of Betelgeuse going supernova? Given its age and characteristics, astronomers agree that – if it hasn’t happened in the last 600-ish years – it will happen in the next 100,000. However, if it has happened within the last 600-ish years, our first indication will not be a sudden blossoming of light in the night (or even daytime, it will be that bright) sky. Instead, the first signs of its supernova will come invisibly in the form of a blast of neutrinos hitting a global network of detectors called the SuperNova Early Warning System (SNEWS) located deep underground.

This is because when the core of  a star destined to go supernova collapses, it generates a massive burst of neutrinos ahead of the actual supernova event. These travel outward at almost the speed of light, unhampered by the intervening matter of the the star. The light and energy created by the supernova, however, does have to propagate up through those layers of stellar matter, taking several hours to do so. Thus, this neutrino blast will reach us hours ahead of any light from the supernova, and SNEWS will be able to trace their point of origin.

Updates

The Rescuer in need of Rescuing

In June I covered the daring attempt to rescue a NASA satellite – the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory – from re-entering Earth’s atmosphere in October 2026 and burning up, by using another spacecraft to link up with it and gently push it up to a higher orbital altitude (see: Space Sunday: NASA – a rescue attempt, costs & infrastructure).

The mission got off to a good start. The rescue vehicle, built by Arizona-based Katalyst Space Technologies and called LINK, carried into space by a Pegasus XL air-launched rocket, successfully reached its initial orbit. Once there, it was able to deploy its solar panels for power and enter a period of check-out, calibration and commissioning before starting on its way to rendezvous with the Swift Observatory. However, on July 28th, NASA announced things had gone a little sideways: two out of the three reaction wheels on the spacecraft have ceased functioning, and its cold gas thrusters are also suffering a “loss of functionality”.

A set of an artist’s renderings of LINK in space and rendezvousing with Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, ready to gently push it up to a safe operating altitude before atmospheric drag causes it to re-enter the atmosphere and burn up. Credit: Katalyst Space

Reaction wheels are a means to precisely control  the orientation of satellites and spacecraft where the use of thrusters isn’t precise enough and / or could lead to excessive propellant depletion. The failure aboard LINK means it is now slowly spinning and only able to achieve intermittent communications with Earth. Further, the issue with the cold gas thrusters means that these cannot be reliably employed to slow the spin and correct LINK’s orientation.

At the time of writing, both Katalyst and NASA are working through the issues in order to recover the spacecraft. At the same time, and as a back-up measure, work is being carried out to reconfigure the software controlling LINK’s more powerful and propulsive ion thrusters so that if necessary, they might be used in a manner similar the vehicle’s cold gas thrusters, firing short, gentle bursts at appropriate times in the spacecraft’s slow tumble and bring it under control.

And in a twist of history, in 2022, the Swift Observatory also suffered a failure within its reaction wheels, causing NASA to place it in a “safe” mode until the matter was resolved and the observatory could resume normal operations. Hopefully, the same will be true for LINK.

Thar’ She Floats!

It’s probably more than apparent that I’m (one of many) not convinced that SpaceX’s Starship / Super Heavy system is actually a viable commercial launch system with a genuine ROI. It is most certainly not the vehicle that will “take humanity to Mars” or anywhere else in the wider solar system or realistically deliver on any of the other promises made by the SpaceX CEO. However, credit does fall where credit is due.

“I’m still floating better than I ever did. Looking like a true survivor, coming back from outer space” – Starship S40 in the Indian Ocean, 5 days after splashing down. Credit: SpaceX (and apologies to Elton John!)

As I covered in my previous Space Sunday update, the system completed its 13th integrated flight test (IFT-13) on July 24th which achieved the majority of its stated goals, potentially clearing the way for an orbital launch attempt with IFT-14. However, perhaps the most remarkable thing about IFT-13 is the fact that on splashing down in the Indian Ocean, Starship S40 didn’t exit this world by blowing up in the manner of its predecessors, but gently keeled over to float on its back.

And it is still afloat, which is equally remarkable, and speaks to its overall structural integrity. Having taken the time to careful study the vehicle following its splashdown – particularly the condition of its heat shield tiles – SpaceX has indicated it may try to attempt a recovery of the 52-metre long, 100-tonne vehicle by towing to Australia – a distance of around 1,200 km – where it can be transferred to a suitable ocean-going barge for transfer back to the United States!

ESCAPADE’s Long Road to Mars Captures the Moon and Earth

In November 2025, and on its second flight, Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket sent two small NASA satellites built by Rocket Lab on behalf of NASA on their (indirect) way to Mars (see: Space Sunday: New Glenn “welds” it on second flight!).

The mission, called ESCAPADE (Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers) is intended to orbit Mars with the two satellites (informally called Gold and Blue) in a study of the planet’s magnetosphere and how solar wind contributed to the loss of most of the planet’s atmosphere. However, under the original plan, the two 1/2 tonne satellites were supposed to have been launched with NASA’s 16 Psyche mission in 2023, effectively hitching a ride with that spacecraft which would make a fly-by of Mars. However, changes to the 16 Psyche mission meant ESCAPADE could no long launch with it, and so it eventually departed Earth outside of the normal 26-month optimal Earth-Mars launch windows.

This meant that as launched the two satellites could not reach Mars directly. Instead, they were placed on a looping flight around the Sun-Earth L2 position before swinging back towards the Earth-Moon system in first of two fly-bys. This took place in early July 2026, and was used to calibrate the imaging systems on both vehicles, by capturing images of the Earth-Moon system in natural light, ultra violet and infrared.

The Earth (l) and the Moon (r) imaged by an ESCAPDE spacecraft during the July fly-by. Earth is 584,600 km from the spacecraft and the Moon 186,100 km. However, the false perspective of the image appears to suggest Earth and the Moon are roughly the same size, and Earth is the nearer of the two to the spacecraft. Credit: NASA

Both Earth and the Moon are 8% sunlit crescents in the image, with the Sun just out of frame to the observer’s right. The image also presents a comparison of albedo (reflectivity), with Earth is around 30% reflective overall thanks to sunlight being reflected off of the planet’s cloud tops. Meanwhile the Moon is a dull 7%.

When seen in the infrared, the difference is more apparent: even the side of Earth apparently in shadow shines with a temperature range of -43o and -10o, which might sound low in this age of global warming, but remember it is the night side of the planet and includes the temperature of the oceans there. By contrast, the Moon’s shadowed side is -173.3o.

ESCAPADE image showing Earth (l) and the Moon in infrared wavelengths. Credit: NASA

Currently, both satellites are on the outward leg of a shorter loop away from Earth. They will return in November and perform a close gravity-assist flyby which will set them on course to reach orbit around Mars in September 2027.