Category: News-Opinion

Horizons land auctions: the half-way point

Posted on by Inara Pey
Horizons: looking at the auctions to date
Horizons: looking at the auctions to date

On Tuesday, November 15th 2016, the Lab launched the Premium members’ Horizons community, a “retro-futuristic” mainland environment featuring 36 residential regions each with 24 parcels available for auction to Premium members, with auctions commencing on Friday, November 18th 2016, with parcels being auctioned in batches of (generally) 10.

Obviously with 864 parcels to auction, it would take some time to get through things. However, the holiday period marked the half-way point in the auctions with 432 parcels auctioned across 18 regions. As Whirly Fizzle and I started monitoring things (largely out of curiosity), and I gave a snapshot at the end of the first weeks of auctions, the half-way point seemed a good opportunity to provide a further snapshot, based on how those 432 regions looked as of Friday, January 6th, 2017.

GENERAL STATUS OF PARCELS FOR BATCH 1 (10 regions) AND BATCH 2 (8 regions)
 Auctioned Parcels Available For (Sold / Rented) Original Auction Others
Sale Rent Either Sold Rented Comm. Resid. Aband Pend Unkn
Batch 1 240 95 55 9 (30) (13) 4 18 1 13 47
Batch 2 192 45 66 24 (3) (3) 7 13 1 0 36
Totals 432 139 121 32 (33) (16) 11 31 2 13 83

Notes

  • Parcels Available For = those parcels bid for and placed immediately on sale / for rent / either
  • Sold / Rented= number of parcels actually sold / rented whether placed for sale  or for rent or either. These set subsets of the Parcels Available For figures, and further breakdowns are provided below
  • Original Auction = those parcels which went directly to private residential use / commercial use during the original auction
    • 4 of the residential parcels may in fact be rented out by bidder
  • Others:
    • Aband = parcels already abandoned by original bidder
    • Pend = regions obtained for sale, but either currently not on sale by bidder (6) or removed from sale by bidder (7 – see sales review, below)
    • Unkn = regions which are not currently in use, nor are they apparently for sale or for rent, and where parcel holders have not responded to enquiries.
RENTAL PARCELS SUMMARY
For Rent Total Rented (16)

Residential Commercial
153 13 3
  • 153 is the total number of parcels available for rent (121), and those offered for rent or purchase (32)
  • Of the 153 parcels currently for rent / rented:
    • 89 are offered through one group of rental operators
    • The remaining 64 are offered through 11 rental groups, with between 1 and 14 parcels on offer per group
  • The average weekly rental for those parcels offered for rent is L$885 (low: L$550; high: L$975)
  • The average weekly rental for parcels offered for sale or rent is L$608 (low: L$495; high: L$800)
PARCEL SALES REVIEW
 Total for Sale Sold (32)
  For Sale Below Bid Price
Residential Commercial Both Re-sale
139 17 10 1 4 20
  • Total for regions on sale does not include those parcels offers for sale or for rent – see rental figures above
  • Of the 139 parcels currently available for sale / sold:
    • 98 are offered by three land sales groups
    • The remaining 41 are offered by 12 land groups / individuals, with between 1 and 12 parcels per individual / group
    • 5 parcels are on sale at prices above L$100,000, ranging from L$112,000 (58.98% mark-up on bid prices) to L$249,000 (255.67% mark-up on bid price) by two land holders
  • Average sale prices:
    • Among all 139 parcels for sale:  L$45,408.
    • Among the three biggest parcel sellers (98 parcels): L$37,360
  • The margins between bid price and sale price vary hugely, between just 2.42% (L$41,000 on a bid price of L$40,033) through to 231.38% (L$199,999 on a bid price of L$62,232)
  • Some 45 parcels have been reduced in price since first being offered for sale
    • The average mark-down on their original price being approximately 25.88%
    • 20 are current for sale at below their original bid price
      • Average drop below bid price: 17.44%
      • Largest drop 50.02% – sale price of L$15,000 on original bid of L$30,010
      • Smallest drop is 0.3% – sale price of L$38,000 on original bid of L$38,010
      • The majority of these drops have been to parcels auctioned in the first batch, and bring prices down to more closely match the prices of parcels the same bidders are selling on other Horizons regions
  • Of the four regions purchased and flipped for re-sale, 3 are by residents without an associated land group / business; one is by another land company active in Horizons.

Commercial Activities

Commercial activities are largely stores (avatar accessories, building materials etc.). Two adult club environments are within Horizons and one sci-fi themed bar.

Approximate Revenue Breakdown

The following table gives a breakdown of approximate revenue across the 18 regions auctioned to date. The US $  value is based on L$260 to the $.

APPROXIMATE AUCTION REVENUES – BATCH 1 AND BATCH 2
Auction Batches Approx L$ Raised Through Auction
 Approx US $ (at L$260 / US $)
Batch 1 (10 regions / 240 parcels) 8,714,966.00 33,519.10
 Batch 2 – (8 regions / 192 parcels) 4,309,833.00 16,576.28
TOTALS: 13,024,799.00 50,095.38

Unsurprisingly, the two regions with direct access to open water (that is, parcel which directly access water, with no intervening protected land) – Apollo and Pandora, both located on the south side of Horizons and facing Zindra across water open for sailing / boating, drew the most competitive bidding.

BATCH 1 BY REGION (All 24 Parcels per Region)
Region Total L$
 Approx US $
 Highest
 Lowest
 Direct Water Access
Apollo 962,882.00 3,703.39 L$80,000 L$29,787 (x2) 6 parcels
Astrid 749,142.00 2,881.32 L$45,009 L$27,087 (x2) None
Galatea 882,008.00 3,392.34 L$70,010 L$27,010 None
Halley 857,738.00 3,298.99 L$60,010 L$27,111 None
Mercury 903,371.00 3,474.50 L$60,010 L$28,110 None
Nova 857,107.00 3,296.57 L$65,010 L$27,110 None
Pandora 1,029,400.00 3,959.23 L$102,454 L$27,110 (x2) 6 parcels
Polaris 960,663.00 3,694.86 L$60,020 L$27,111 None
Thule 785,673.00 3,021.82 L$45,565 L$27,087 None
Triton 726,982.00 2,792.08 L$40,033 L$26,010 None

The second batch of regions auctioned drew considerably lower value bids, with the third batch of regions more-or-less matching the second thus far.

BATCH 2 BY REGION (All 24 Parcels per Region)
Region Total L$
 Approx US $
 Highest
 Lowest
 Direct Water Access
Atlas 542.964.00 2,088.32 L$40,010 L$15,010 None
Celeste 495,317.00 1,905.07 L$30,010 L$12,022 None
Halo 461,464.00 1,774.86 L$32,010 L$13,038 None
Neptune 583,522.00 2,244.32 L$40,121 L$12,121 None
Orion 589,377.00 2,266.83 L$37,799 L$15,009 None
Pluto 521,321.00 2,005.08 L$40,000 L$13,039 None
Sirius 580,799.00 2,233.84 L$42,010 L$12,455 None
Venus 535,069.00 2,057.96 L$40,033 L$26,010 None

General Observations

Outside of those bidding on the parcel lots, there appears to be little direct interest from Premium members in obtaining a property within Horizons. Some may be put off by the Adult rating, others by the lack of any covenant. While the high price of bids places during the first batch of auctions might be considered a reason, the second batch of auctions averages close to half the per parcel bid price of the initial batch, and still generated little direct take-up. This appears to be the case with the third batch.

Rentals  – which should allow non-Premium members to gain a parcel within Horizons if they wished – are currently gaining little traction, although this could be own to lack of promotion on the part of the rental groups. Obviously, the advantage of Mainland holding is they are not a tremendous drain on resources in the way that partially occupied private regions can be.

There may be a follow-up report at the conclusion of the bidding. Or at least a summary of potential revenues. Putting this report together was too much like hard work!

Looking at the Second Life 2016 year-end Grid Survey report

Posted on by Inara Pey
The Prim Rig, ANWR Channel
The Prim Rig, ANWR Channel – blog post

On January 2nd, Tyche Shepherd issued her year-end summary on the general size and state of the Second Life main grid.

In all, 2016 has seen a slightly larger loss of private regions compared to 2015: 992 private regions (Full and Homestead) removed from the main grid in 2016 compared to 825 the previous year. This represents a reduction of some 5.6% over 4.4% for 2015. In terms of grid size, the loss of private regions was slightly mitigated by an increase in Linden owned regions, leaving the grid with a net shrinkage of 884 regions overall for 2016.

Taking the year-on-year figures from 2010 onwards (that being the last year the grid exhibited a growth in the number of regions), we get the following breakdown for private regions:

2010 2011 2012 2013
 2014
 2015 2016
24,483 23,857 20,994 19,273
  18,600
 17,775 16,783
Increase
 %age
 Loss
 %age
 Loss
 %age
 Loss
 %age
 Loss
 %age
 Loss
 %age
 Loss
 %age
810 3% 626 2.56% 2863 12% 1719 8.2% 673 3.5% 825 4.4% 992 5.6%

While the loss is something of an acceleration over 2015 and 2014, it is still not as drastic as the declines in private regions seen in 2012 and 2013 . Nevertheless, it does indicate a further drop in approximate gross monthly revenues for the Lab. Working on the basis of Tyche Full Private Region surveys I have to hand, a breakdown of recent monthly revenue from private regions can be given as:

  • November 2013: US$3,857,000 (+/- US $52,000)
  • March 2016: $3,385,000 ( +/- US $43,000)
  • December 2016: US$3,162,000 (+/- US $39,000)

This represents around an 18% drop in monthly revenues over a three-year period. While uncomfortable, it’s not outright alarming at this point in time, representing an average loss of about US $19,305.55 per month, compared to the staggering US $63,500 (approx) per month loss the Lab experienced in  2012.

Of course, a loss is still a loss, and sooner or later, continuing revenue decline will have an a visible impact. But it is hard to determine when that might actually be. The surface evidence seems to be that at this point in time, while of concern, the decline isn’t adversely affecting the Lab’s ability to do business. They are still continuing to invest in both Second Life and Sansar, including recruiting for positions working on both. While it is hard to be precise, a reasonable estimation suggests that the company is generating around US $49 million in revenue through Second Life. While we don’t know how much of that is bankable as profit, it’s still a tidy sum in terms of operating revenue for a company of LL’s size.

Some have raised concerns over how much of an impact Sansar will have on SL’s landmass in 2017. I actually don’t think it will. While I anticipate the decline in land will continue (but hopefully at a slower rate than 2016), I simply don’t think Sansar will have any immediate impact on Second Life one way or the other. Not in its first year, at least.

To me, the more interesting question is what can LL do to further offset revenue drops incurred by region losses (and sadly, the answer isn’t simply to reduce tier: that could actually do far more harm than good, given the amounts involved). The Horizons initiative, for example, is one way of spawning additional revenue. We’re now around half-way through that process, and I estimate the Lab has generated around US $45,000 from it thus far. 2016 also saw the private region buy-down offer, which appeared to be enthusiastically received, although numbers are far harder to ascertain on that. Are we liable to see further initiatives in 2017? I’d actually be very surprised if we didn’t.

Private estate numbers ups-and-downs in 2016
Private estate numbers ups-and-downs in 2016

Related Links

Of snowball fights and premium discounts in Second Life

Posted on by Inara Pey
Winter Wonderland - the snowball fight Arena awaits
Winter Wonderland – the snowball fight Arena awaits

The Lab has been awash with blog posts this last week. There was news of  a new Marketplace promotion – the 12 Days Of Savings, which launched on Wednesday, December 14th and runs through to December 25th. It sees the Lab hook-up with selected content creators to offer up to 70% off selected goods for the period.

That was followed by the announcement of the Jolly Holiday Crawl, and a chance to meeting Linden staff as they hop across wintry regions before retiring to Winter Wonderland for the time-honoured residents vs Lab snowball fight.

The Jolly Holiday Crawl will start at 1:00 SLT on Monday, December 19th, and conclude at :12:00 SLT at the Winter Wonderland, ready for the snowball engagement at Winter Wonderland, which will continue through to 14:00 SLT (officially!). There’s a special gift on offer for those taking part, and the itinerary reads as follows (all times SLT):

Winter Wonderland
Winter Wonderland

To coincide with the above, and the opening of the all new Portal Parks (see my post here for more), the Lab officially announced the re-opening of Winter Wonderland on Thursday, December 15th, together with an end-of-year Premium Membership discount drive.

The five regions of Winter Wonderland offer the Village of Lights (with the main landing point), the snow track for snowboard and snowmobiles (rezzers at the starting point), the skating rinks, Ferris wheel, walks in the snow, and – of course – the snowball fight arena.

The Premium Membership discount is this time in respect of the Quarterly  Billing plan, and relates to 50% off your first payment under that plan.  (all subsequent payments will be at the standard rate), and provides all the usual Premium perks. In addition, new and existing Premium members can claim yet another premium gift, which this time also includes a Premium Badge which unlocks exclusive options at Winter Wonderland (e.g. upgrading snowball weapons in the snowball arena).

For those who are interested in the Premium Membership offer, it expires on January 2nd 2017, at 08:00 SLT – be sure to read the small print on both the official blog post and the Premium sign-up page.

The all new (new) portal parks open in Second Life

Posted on by Inara Pey
New Portal Parks
New Portal Parks

Back in October 2016, Linden Lab blogged about various updates to Second Life (see here). One of the updates mentioned concerned the new two-region Portal Parks, which I wenet on to write about in a little more depth (see here).

Well – guess what? It’s all changed again!

“We made everything fit into one region again,” Naughty Mole told me as I dropped into one of the new Portal Park regions on the suggestion of Dee Linden. “These will be replacing the 2-region ones, which will be gone in a few hours.”

There is something distinctly Tolkienesque about the new parks, which offer a very compact design. At the centre is a huge tree, rooted in a massive crystal, which itself hovers gently in the air, light rising in twists and spirals around it from the glimmering water below.

New Portal Parks
New Portal Parks

Around this is a circular pathway, sitting between the rim of the pool and the great walls of an all-encompassing dome, ageist which great statues and pillars stand, feet garlanded in flowers and plants, the walls behind them set with growing ivy while crystals light the scene. Within these walls are set great doors. Some are closed, their lintels guarded by ancient runes – representing destinations still to come. Others are open, offering walkways to waiting portals, the destination displayed in glowing letters above the runes which might otherwise guard them.

All of the current Lab-provided destinations are represented: Gaming Island, Halloween Haunted, Horizons, Isle of View, Linden Realms, PaleoQuest, The Cornfield and Winter Wonderland. However, if any are not currently open to the public, their teleport portals are sealed and inactive.

New Portal Parks
New Portal Parks

Of the various portal parks designs, this is both the most compact – and potentially the best looking. A landing point built out over the central well present people with a place to sit and a map of the available portals on the surrounding walkway. Admittedly, this started to get a little crowded as people were diverted from the “old” parks – but things will hopefully settle down as both of the portal parks come into use.

SLurl Details

Lab adjusts billing and trading limits in Second Life

Posted on by Inara Pey

On Tuesday, December 13th, Linden Lab announced updates to the caps placed on trading volumes across the LindeX which are designed to help prevent fraud.

The announcement reads in full:

Many Residents participate in the LindeX® exchange – trading L$ and contributing to the Second Life economy on a regular basis. As part of our commitment to prevent fraud and comply with applicable regulations, there are limitations in place that cap the trading volume for each Resident’s account at certain tiers.

We have recently reviewed and adjusted these tier limits to better accommodate the needs of Second Life Residents. For most, these changes will be beneficial, and you can review the details of your current trading limits by logging into your account and visiting your order history.

If you find that you need higher limits, you can request a tier limit review through our support system. Simply submit a ticket –> Billing –> LindeX Billing and Trading Limits Review Request (for basic accounts) or  Billing and L$ -> LindeX Tier Review ticket options (for premium accounts).

Happy trading!

A Petrovsky Flux gone from Second Life

Posted on by Inara Pey
A Petrovsky Flux - no longer in Second Life
A Petrovsky Flux – no longer in Second Life

A Petrovsky Flux, the stunning, ever-changing cluster of devices that would assemble themselves and grow almost organically, only to blow apart and rebuild themselves over and over again, taking on a new form each time – has gone from Second Life.

Designed by Cutea Benelli and blotto Epsilon, the installation had, since 2010, been curated by the University of Kansas at their Spencer Art Museum region in SL, where it had over the years been a popular draw. However, at a time when eyes were all on the opening of the Horizons regions (see here) and return of Mont Saint Michel to Second Life in November 2016 (see here), the Spencer Museum of Art region quietly slipped away from Second Life, pretty much unnoticed.

It wasn’t until Chantal Harvey contacted me about the possible status of the Spencer Art Museum region that I found out something may had changed.  “I’ve been trying to get there for weeks now,” she informed me via IM, “I was filming there. but it seems it is gone, do you know?”

A quick check on the map confirmed the region had indeed gone from the grid, and a check through Tyche Shepherd’s excellent Grid Survey summaries showed it had been removed from the grid during the week ending Sunday, November 13th, 2016.

It’s not clear if the removal is permanent or not – as I reported in 2014, the region came close to vanishing from Second Life, due to something of a miscommunication involving the Spencer Art Museum, the University of Kansas and the artists. As a result of that situation, I’ve written to Stephen Goddard, the Spencer’s Associate Director/Senior Curator of Prints & Drawings. He was responsible for the Museum’s presence in Second Life, so hopefully, he can shed some light on what has happened. Should he reply, I’ll offer and update.

In the meantime, here’s Toxic Menges’ 2010 machinima of A Petrovsky Flux to remind us of this fabulous build.